We also needed to decide when to measure receiver separation. Play-action passes create more separation than non-play-action passes at nearly every depth of target on average, so we need to contextualize players who are targeted more often on play-action as well. So we need to account for depth of target and how far the QB had to throw the ball when we apportion credit for the separation a receiver got on a given play. For instance, short passes are, on average, associated with more separation than deeper passes because a defender’s top priority is to avoid getting beat deep. Perhaps it’s no surprise that in the ultimate team sport, assigning credit for something even as seemingly straightforward as separation is complicated. To try to capture the results of this game of cat and mouse between receiver and defender, we used NFL Next Gen Stats data that measures the distance between a receiver and the nearest defender at key moments in each play. And the ultimate goal of every route is to create enough separation from a defender to earn a target and make a catch. The elements of savvy route running - footwork, head and body fakes, disguising the intent of the route, changing direction sharply without losing speed - all appear to be more reliable indicators of NFL skill and talent than speed. Being quick and fast isn’t enough for NFL success just ask Yamon Figurs or Darrius Heyward-Bey, both of whom ran a 4.3 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. One way to try to answer the question is to look at how well a receiver creates and maintains separation from a defender. So which is it: elite talent, or elite situation? But Thomas’s numbers are still eye-popping, and his peers in the NFL recently ranked him first among all wide receivers (and fifth overall) in the NFL 100. 630 career win percentage (208-131, third among active NFL coaches), probably also has a strong positive effect on his production. And running routes in schemes designed by Sean Payton, a coach with a. Playing with Drew Brees - a former Super Bowl MVP who holds the NFL record for highest career completion percentage, most career passing yards and most career passing touchdowns - certainly doesn’t hurt. Michael Thomas, the New Orleans wide receiver who led the NFL in receiving yards and set an NFL record for receptions in 2019 1 on the way to winning Offensive Player of the Year - that Mike Thomas might not be an elite receiver? Yet throughout the offseason, NFL analysts have debated whether Thomas’s production is best explained by his skill and talent, or if instead he’s merely a good receiver who runs a lot of slants and benefits from being in an elite offense. Is Michael Thomas elite? On its face, that seems like an outrageous question.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |